Zillow Homeowner Confidence Survey; For me the Cup is Half Full

Posted on May 14, 2009 by hankbailey

Zillow released its Homeowner Confidence Survey in which the headlines read, “Homeowner Confidence Shrinks; Most Americans Now Believe Their Home’s Value Has Declined.” As a real estate broker and someone who is a student of real estate, I admire Zillow wholeheartedly. They are innovative and the rest of the industry needs to take a lesson from them in everything right down to their iPhone application.

As a real estate professional however I can’t agree with the title on this news release. I know, I know, a title is supposed to drag you in so you read the piece, but I think the first sentence in their release sums it up better for me.

They state, “American homeowners have a solid understanding of what has happened to the values of their own homes over the past year.” This is where I know most real estate professionals have hoped sellers would get to in an understanding that this is not 2005-2006 anymore in terms of pricing or home valuations. I don’t know that “confidence” is lacking more than a reality check has finally set in on homeowners, especially those that are trying to sell at this time. It seems as a real estate practitioner that I have seen in the past 9-12 months a movement down on prices in a direction where buyers are willing to jump back into our market, which in a free market it should work that way. Markets correct and then things become more balanced again between buyers and sellers.

What is the perception on a market bottom? Zillow’s report gave way to hope. It states, “More accurate perceptions of the past gave way to hope for the future. Most homeowners – 74 percent – believe their home will not decline in value in the coming six months, effectively calling a bottom to their own home’s housing slide. Specifically, one in four homeowners (27 percent) think their home’s value will increase in the next six months, while nearly half (47 percent) believe their home’s value will remain the same. Homeowners were similarly optimistic when it came to predicting home values in their local markets. About two-thirds of homeowners believe home values in their local markets will increase (26 percent) or stay the same (37 percent) over the next six months.”

Regionally, as we look at the South, the report showed that almost 75% of Southern homeowners felt their homes would hold value or increase in value over the next six months, effectively calling for a bottom in the market.

Web site: http://www.zillow.com/

If you are a buyer in our market, these are probably the best buying conditions in 30 years! If you would like to search the Athens MLS please take a look at listings in our “Classic City” today! On this web MLS search solution you can search every listing on the Georgia MLS for the Greater Athens area or in your Georgia town!

The Fed; Housing Stabilizing

Posted on May 6, 2009 by hankbailey

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said today that the economy appeared to be stabilizing, but cautioned that a full recovery was months away.

“We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year,” Bernanke noted to Congress.

Bernanke noted that improved home sales as evidence of improvement in the housing sector.

His comments were that sales have been “fairly stable” since the later half of 2008, also noting that this was primarily due to reduced sales prices which in his mind have made affordability better for all Americans.

Homes Undervalued Today?

Posted on May 15, 2009 by hankbailey

In his column at Realtor Magazine today Robert Freedman makes the point that home values could be, dare I repeat it, dare I say it, too low. “Today’s prices are justified by the fundamentals of the economy and may even represent an undervaluation,” as Freedman reports.

Okay, I can hear you crying, “give me some fundamentals to justify such blasphemy!” Freedman reports very succinctly that distressed sales, which make up half of all closed transactions across the United States for many months now, are creating “market distortions in otherwise stable neighborhoods.” A distressed sale can commonly be 20-25 percent or more below actual values for an area.

For this reason alone the argument is tossed about quite logically in this article that the possibility exists that the widely touted guesstimates that a third or more of homeowners have negative equity might possibly be exaggerated. Keep in mind that in every “bubble” and subsequent correction whether we are talking stocks, real estate, or baseball cards, prices get pushed up beyond reason too high and then get pushed down too low before hitting their next upward trend.

Another unrelated bit of good news regarding the housing sector is that nationally inventory levels are continuing to come down, now 9.5 months of supply, which should continue to help us get back to a more balanced market between buyers and sellers.

If you are a buyer in our market, these are probably the best buying conditions in 30 years! If you would like to search the Athens MLS please take a look at listings in our “Classic City” today! On this web MLS search solution you can search every listing on the Georgia MLS for the Greater Athens area or in your Georgia town!

Athens GA Housing Market Trends

Statistics (89 listings)
	Low	High	Average	Median	Total
List Price	$11,900	$639,000	$169,403	$139,900	$15,076,861
Selling Price	$8,000	$624,000	$162,585	$135,500	$14,307,445
List/Sold(%)	66.67%	109.08%	95.15%	96.31%	--
Days on Market	22	999	181	114	--

In the last 30 days, through today, in the Greater Athens area that comprises six different MSA's (metro statistical areas), we see an average and median sales prices selling at 95 percent to 96 percent of List Price.

Market Summary (by Sold Price)

Price Range	Count	Sum Price	Average Price	Median Price	Average DOM
$0 - $24,999	1	$9,200	$9,200	$9,200	36
$50,000 - $74,999	3	$196,600	$65,533	$66,200	40
$100,000 - $124,999	9	$1,029,052	$114,389	$119,000	154
$125,000 - $149,999	15	$2,004,400	$133,627	$132,000	138
$150,000 - $174,999	9	$1,454,400	$161,600	$157,900	143
$175,000 - $199,999	7	$1,264,045	$180,578	$180,000	147
$200,000 - $224,999	2	$419,000	$209,500	$209,500	73
$300,000 - $324,999	1	$320,000	$320,000	$320,000	497
$500,000 - $524,999	2	$1,048,000	$524,000	$524,000	273
$600,000 - $624,999	1	$624,000	$624,000	$624,000	47
Totals:	50	$8,369,145
Averages:			$167,383	$142,450	144

This is also interesting in that only six (6) out of 50 homes sold during "peak season," thus far were over $200,000. Conversely, roughly half the homes sold during this time period were between $125,000-$174,999.